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BC

2013 Final Election Results

What's the Bottom Line?

Over 8 Ridings the BC Liberals were able to secure their majority government by 4408 votes. In all of these ridings if around 50% or much less of Green voters would have opted for their NDP candidate then the NDP party would have won. Green Party votes accounted for 8% of total votes cast across BC but the majority government was decided by these 0.24% of the popular vote. These are the ridings in order from least votes needed to greatest.

Electoral District LIB NDP GP CP LBN OTHER Total Valid
Votes
% and total votes
needed to overcome
NDP & Green split
Surrey-Fleetwood 8974 8774 1147 801 0 59 19755 18% = votes: 201
Delta North 9613 9410 1312 983 0 268 21586 16% = votes: 204
Port Moody-Coquitlam 9675 9238 1708 0 237 0 20858 26% = votes: 438
Vancouver-Fraserview 10118 9648 1230 653 0 0 21649 39% = votes: 471
Fraser-Nicola 6002 5388 1314 895 0 0 13599 47% = votes: 615
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows 10824 10204 2178 0 0 589 23795 29% = votes: 621
Burnaby North 10543 9875 1577 0 0 523 22518 43% = votes: 669
North Vancouver-Lonsdale 11060 9872 2257 833 156 148 24326 53% = votes: 1189

Comox Valley was an outlier where 48% of the Green Vote would have altered the outcome but the Green Party had a much larger showing in this riding so it accounts for many more votes than the average trends. The threat of the Raven Coal Mine reopening in the region created a huge grassroots environmental movement to elect a member who would fight to end this proposed project. The outcome was the only riding on Vancouver Island to elect a BC Liberal.

Electoral District LIB NDP GP CP LBN OTHER Total Valid
Votes
% and total votes
needed to overcome
NDP & Green split
Comox Valley 14248 12480 3718 1740 0 0 32186 48% = votes: 1769

The BC Liberals were actually able to secure a 15 seat majority and these are the further ridings where the number of Green Party votes would have made the difference to the NDP candidate however since the percentages required of Green votes are much higher in these ridings the argument for votesplitting is less pursuasive.

Electoral District LIB NDP GP CP LBN OTHER Total Valid
Votes
% and total votes
needed to overcome
NDP & Green split
Boundary-Similkameen 8499 7113 1602 0 0 1030 18244 87% = votes: 1387
Maple Ridge-Mission 10327 8830 1818 1190 0 0 22165 83% = votes: 1498


Read more: 2013 Final Election Results

2013 Election - Preliminary Results

Legend of background colours

  •       Actual Liberal won Riding
  •       Actual NDP won riding
  •       Riding where NDP would have won with % of Green Vote
    (% displayed in last column)

How this tool works:
Drag the Slider that is above the Data table on the left to move a percentage of votes from the Green Party to the NDP and see how much percentage is required to secure an NDP win in each riding. 

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At the conclusion of initial count the preliminary election results were as follows:

BC Liberal Party 50
BC NDP 33
Green Party of BC 1
Vicki Huntington, Independent 1

Read more: 2013 Election - Preliminary Results

2009 Full Election Results

Legend of background colours

  •       Actual Liberal won Riding
  •       Actual NDP won riding
  •       Riding where NDP would have won with % of Green Vote
    (% displayed in last column)

How this tool works:
Drag the Slider that is above the Data table on the left to move a percentage of votes from the Green Party to the NDP and see how much percentage is required to secure an NDP win in each riding. 

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Liberal seats = 49
NDP seats = 35

8 seats would be needed to shift majority power

Read more: 2009 Full Election Results