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2013 Final Election Results

What's the Bottom Line?

Over 8 Ridings the BC Liberals were able to secure their majority government by 4408 votes. In all of these ridings if around 50% or much less of Green voters would have opted for their NDP candidate then the NDP party would have won. Green Party votes accounted for 8% of total votes cast across BC but the majority government was decided by these 0.24% of the popular vote. These are the ridings in order from least votes needed to greatest.

Electoral District LIB NDP GP CP LBN OTHER Total Valid
Votes
% and total votes
needed to overcome
NDP & Green split
Surrey-Fleetwood 8974 8774 1147 801 0 59 19755 18% = votes: 201
Delta North 9613 9410 1312 983 0 268 21586 16% = votes: 204
Port Moody-Coquitlam 9675 9238 1708 0 237 0 20858 26% = votes: 438
Vancouver-Fraserview 10118 9648 1230 653 0 0 21649 39% = votes: 471
Fraser-Nicola 6002 5388 1314 895 0 0 13599 47% = votes: 615
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows 10824 10204 2178 0 0 589 23795 29% = votes: 621
Burnaby North 10543 9875 1577 0 0 523 22518 43% = votes: 669
North Vancouver-Lonsdale 11060 9872 2257 833 156 148 24326 53% = votes: 1189

Comox Valley was an outlier where 48% of the Green Vote would have altered the outcome but the Green Party had a much larger showing in this riding so it accounts for many more votes than the average trends. The threat of the Raven Coal Mine reopening in the region created a huge grassroots environmental movement to elect a member who would fight to end this proposed project. The outcome was the only riding on Vancouver Island to elect a BC Liberal.

Electoral District LIB NDP GP CP LBN OTHER Total Valid
Votes
% and total votes
needed to overcome
NDP & Green split
Comox Valley 14248 12480 3718 1740 0 0 32186 48% = votes: 1769

The BC Liberals were actually able to secure a 15 seat majority and these are the further ridings where the number of Green Party votes would have made the difference to the NDP candidate however since the percentages required of Green votes are much higher in these ridings the argument for votesplitting is less pursuasive.

Electoral District LIB NDP GP CP LBN OTHER Total Valid
Votes
% and total votes
needed to overcome
NDP & Green split
Boundary-Similkameen 8499 7113 1602 0 0 1030 18244 87% = votes: 1387
Maple Ridge-Mission 10327 8830 1818 1190 0 0 22165 83% = votes: 1498



Legend of background colours

  •       Actual Liberal won riding
  •       Actual NDP won riding
  •       Riding where NDP would have won with % of Green Vote
    (% and number of votes displayed in last column)
  •       Actual Green Party won riding
  •       Actual Independent won riding

How this tool works:
Drag the Slider that is above the Data table on the left to move a percentage of votes from the Green Party to the NDP and see how much percentage is required to secure an NDP win in each riding. 

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The final election results after including absentee ballots were as follows:

BC Liberal Party 49
BC NDP 34
Green Party of BC 1
Vicki Huntington, Independent 1

Drag Slider Slowly or use your arrow keys after clicking on the Slider to get most accurate calculations.

 
Slider


As of June 04, 2013 4:41 p.m.


Electoral District LIB NDP GP CP LBN OTHER Total Valid
Votes
% and total votes
needed to overcome
NDP & Green split
Abbotsford-Mission 10417 5591 1865 1946 0 738 20557  
Abbotsford South 9564 4210 0 0 0 6260 20034  
Abbotsford West 9473 5530 877 1791 0 1131 18802  
Alberni-Pacific Rim 6341 10570 0 1456 0 0 18367  
Boundary-Similkameen 8499 7113 1602 0 0 1030 18244  
Burnaby-Deer Lake 7286 8189 1417 0 0 0 16892  
Burnaby-Edmonds 6950 9253 1573 0 0 215 17991  
Burnaby-Lougheed 8209 8952 1665 0 0 1399 20225  
Burnaby North 10543 9875 1577 0 0 523 22518  
Cariboo-Chilcotin 7679 4740 747 0 0 503 13669  
Cariboo North 5867 3036 0 0 0 5264 14167  
Chilliwack 9983 6548 1761 2510 0 181 20983  
Chilliwack-Hope 10053 7364 0 2202 0 833 20452  
Columbia River-Revelstoke 4847 6463 921 1162 0 0 13393  
Comox Valley 14248 12480 3718 1740 0 0 32186  
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain 9766 7315 1154 1071 277 0 19583  
Coquitlam-Maillardville 9893 9928 1893 0 0 0 21714  
Cowichan Valley 9299 10696 5102 1223 0 326 26646  
Delta North 9613 9410 1312 983 0 268 21586  
Delta South 8721 3700 0 0 0 11376 23797  
Esquimalt-Royal Roads 6511 10963 4928 0 0 343 22745  
Fort Langley-Aldergrove 15989 7511 2229 2615 0 672 29016  
Fraser-Nicola 6002 5388 1314 895 0 0 13599  
Juan de Fuca 7044 12244 3646 0 0 0 22934  
Kamloops-North Thompson 12183 9139 0 1644 0 436 23402  
Kamloops-South Thompson 15092 9291 0 1623 0 428 26434  
Kelowna-Lake Country 12149 5306 1591 2351 0 0 21397  
Kelowna-Mission 13687 6221 0 3051 0 1113 24072  
Kootenay East 10173 5973 0 0 0 0 16146  
Kootenay West 3831 11349 0 0 0 2822 18002  
Langley 14039 7403 2608 3242 0 0 27292  
Maple Ridge-Mission 10327 8830 1818 1190 0 0 22165  
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows 10824 10204 2178 0 0 589 23795  
Nanaimo 8568 10820 2532 1221 0 253 23394  
Nanaimo-North Cowichan 7685 11542 3430 1603 0 718 24978  
Nechako Lakes 5324 2737 510 1253 0 74 9898  
Nelson-Creston 4577 8200 3387 0 0 0 16164  
New Westminster 8944 13026 2241 1307 189 1043 26750  
North Coast 2692 4617 831 0 0 0 8140  
North Island 9883 11885 0 1675 0 0 23443  
North Vancouver-Lonsdale 11060 9872 2257 833 156 148 24326  
North Vancouver-Seymour 13232 8555 1899 1212 0 1085 25983  
Oak Bay-Gordon Head 7767 7536 10722 492 0 0 26517  
Parksville-Qualicum 14518 10732 0 3710 0 0 28960  
Peace River North 7905 1319 0 900 0 3287 13411  
Peace River South 4373 1988 0 2546 0 451 9358  
Penticton 11551 10154 0 2277 0 1181 25163  
Port Coquitlam 8120 11755 0 1525 358 447 22205  
Port Moody-Coquitlam 9675 9238 1708 0 237 0 20858  
Powell River-Sunshine Coast 7792 13120 2856 0 0 0 23768  
Prince George-Mackenzie 10689 6725 1094 858 0 0 19366  
Prince George-Valemount 11291 7116 0 1105 0 314 19826  
Richmond Centre 9459 4416 1678 961 0 2440 18954  
Richmond East 11592 6047 1178 1827 0 564 21208  
Richmond-Steveston 12063 6553 1904 2662 0 166 23348  
Saanich North and the Islands 10352 10515 10136 0 0 599 31602  
Saanich South 9256 11946 4011 873 0 142 26228  
Shuswap 11992 7398 2338 3232 0 63 25023  
Skeena 5087 5609 0 797 0 263 11756  
Stikine 3167 4074 303 533 0 573 8650  
Surrey-Cloverdale 18001 8777 0 2541 0 953 30272  
Surrey-Fleetwood 8974 8774 1147 801 0 59 19755  
Surrey-Green Timbers 5581 9386 655 444 0 101 16167  
Surrey-Newton 6604 9788 0 674 0 282 17348  
Surrey-Panorama 14139 9307 1478 1037 0 81 26042  
Surrey-Tynehead 9172 7539 0 2040 0 298 19049  
Surrey-Whalley 5004 10405 0 1110 0 420 16939  
Surrey-White Rock 15092 7180 2304 1301 0 105 25982  
Vancouver-Fairview 11298 12649 2785 0 0 0 26732  
Vancouver-False Creek 11328 7981 1928 0 0 370 21607  
Vancouver-Fraserview 10118 9648 1230 653 0 0 21649  
Vancouver-Hastings 5946 12782 2386 0 0 384 21498  
Vancouver-Kensington 7965 10687 1578 572 0 0 20802  
Vancouver-Kingsway 6600 10419 1327 0 0 0 18346  
Vancouver-Langara 10234 7447 1055 674 0 45 19455  
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant 3942 13845 2506 0 0 738 21031  
Vancouver-Point Grey 10436 11499 1636 392 66 134 24163  
Vancouver-Quilchena 14496 5705 1667 0 0 671 22539  
Vancouver-West End 5349 10755 2156 0 446 226 18932  
Vernon-Monashee 12503 9233 1905 3169 0 169 26979  
Victoria-Beacon Hill 4378 12560 8747 0 0 130 25815  
Victoria-Swan Lake 5055 12350 5260 0 0 0 22665  
West Vancouver-Capilano 15777 5267 0 1156 320 1018 23538  
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky 11252 6963 2349 657 0 224 21445  
Westside-Kelowna 12987 6790 0 2466 0 0 22243  
Provincial Total 795947 716016 146610 85784 2049 56669 1803075  
% of Popular Vote 44.14% 39.71% 8.13% 4.76% 0.11% 3.14%    
  LIB NDP GP CP LBN OTHER    

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