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BC Provincial Elections

In 2001 the popular vote clearly showed the mandate for the BC Liberals with a total votes cast 916,888 compared to the NDP’s 343,156 but due to our first past the post electoral system this only gave the NDP 2 seats(Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, Vancouver-Hastings) in the 79 seat legislature.  The Green Party garnered 197,231 votes in that election and zero seats.  I would surmise that until we have some sort of electoral reform to give more proportional representation to the voting public then these politicians will be doomed to continue focusing on being elected instead of solving the many issues civilization and the natural world faces. This is what we expect for our tax dollars from these bureaucrats.  Therefore we should move forward with collaboration between the Green Party, NDP and like minded independents in our volunteering and our vote.

When we check to see how the Green party and NDP votes could have been collaborative over the last recent elections instead of in opposition the number of seats jumps dramatically. For arguments sake I will be transferring percentages of votes in each riding from the Green Party to NDP to see what the result could have been.
 
The tables show actual vote count and last 2 columns show if 50% or 80% of the Green Party candidates votes were moved to the NDP candidate what the result would have been.  Below these tables is a detailed account of how these changes would have affected the overall makeup of the BC Legislature. It is also important to notice voter turnout which is steadily dropping - 1996(71.50%), 2001(70.95%), 2005(62.36%) and 2009(55.14%) 
 
2009 Election
Electoral District

CP

Green

Liberal

NDP

OTHER

Total Registered Voters % Who Voted

NDP win
with 50%
of Green

NDP win
with 80%
of Green
Boundary-Similkameen

3,596

1,691

6,681

5,870

0

28,822

62.31%



Burnaby-Lougheed

---

1,285

9,207

8,511

0

35,705

53.59%



Burnaby North

---

1,292

9,880

9,332

0

38,404

53.85%



Cariboo-Chilcotin

---

650

6,259

6,171

0

20,890

62.93%



Comox Valley

---

2,577

13,886

12,508

120

48,367

60.99%



Kamloops-North Thompson

---

1,418

9,830

9,320

124

38,245

55.05%



Maple Ridge-Mission

---

1,387

8,802

8,734

0

35,200

55.10%



Oak Bay-Gordon Head

---

2,330

11,877

11,316

0

38,415

66.86%



Saanich North and the Islands

---

3,223

13,136

12,878

0

43,989

66.82%



Vancouver-Fairview

---

2,232

11,034

9,881

0

41,748

56.50%



Vernon-Monashee

1,972

4,029

9,015

7,698

1,397

45,410

53.73%



*Columns with less than 1000 votes entries removed - See all results at Elections BC


2005 Election
Electoral District

DRBC

Green 

Liberal

NDP

No. of Registered Voters % Who Voted NDP win with
50% of Green

NDP win with
80% of Green

Burnaby North

316

1,763

10,421

10,356

38,505

59.76%



Burnaby-Willingdon

947

1,482

8,754

8,355

34,958

57.36%



Burquitlam

---

1,619

10,054

9,682

36,089

60.45%



Comox Valley

187

2,833

14,068

13,261

45,205

68.34%



East Kootenay

---

1,389

8,060

7,339

28,153

60.03%



Kamloops

---

1,723

11,261

9,886

38,589

61.81%



Maple Ridge-Mission

---

2,633

12,095

11,896

43,384

63.31%



North Vancouver-Lonsdale 163

2,562

9,375

8,391

32,987

64.31%



Oak Bay-Gordon Head

278

2,379

13,443

12,016

38,605

73.63%



Saanich North and the Islands

1,092

4,846

13,781

11,842

43,374

73.09%



Vancouver-Burrard

82

3,698

12,009

11,998

55,201

51.95%



Vancouver-Point Grey

---

4,111

12,498

10,248

44,818

60.94%



  *Columns with less than 1000 votes entries removed - See all results at Elections BC

2001 Election
Electoral District

BCM

Green

Liberal

NDP

UPBC

OTHER

No. of Registered Voters % Who Voted NDP win
with 50%
of Green
NDP win
with 80%
of Green
Nelson-Creston

570

4,723

8,558

6,981

1,108

---

29,233

75.32%



Powell River-Sunshine Coast

812

6,316

9,904

6,349

---

---

30,763

76.33%



Victoria-Beacon Hill

532

5,453

9,297

9,262

290

269

36,775

68.63%



Victoria-Hillside

663

4,142

7,878

7,796

293

121

30,602

68.73%



  *Columns with less than 250 votes entries removed - See all results at Elections BC
 
Stepping back to the 1996 election in which the NDP won despite the fact the Liberals actually had more of the popular vote, 661,929 to the NDP’s 624,395. They only received 34 seats out of the 75 available mostly due to the strong showing of the BC Reform Party(146,734) and Progressive Democratic Alliance(89,671) thereby splitting the vote in the NDP's favor.  Moving 50% of the Green vote would have given the NDP 1 more seat(Okanagan-Boundary), moving 80% would have made no difference.

The 2001 Election Moving 50% of the Green vote to the NDP in the respective ridings would give the NDP 3 more seats(Nelson-Creston, Victoria-Beacon Hill, Victoria-Hillside) not many but Victoria-Beacon Hill could have been swayed by 1%. Moving 80% of the Green vote would have gained 1 more seats(Powell River-Sunshine Coast) with Nanaimo and Esquimalt-Metchosin being next closest races.

Then in 2005, after 4 years of Liberal policies, the election significantly reversed the trouncing that the NDP suffered in 2001 but not enough to win a majority. The totals were 46 Liberal seats to 33 NDP with a popular vote totaling 807,118 and 731,719 respectively.  The Green party received 161,842 votes and when we break down the votes by riding and check the same percentage transfers a noticeable shift takes place.

With 50% of the Green Party vote the NDP would gain 8 seats(Burnaby-North, Burnaby-Willingdon, Burquitlam, Comox Valley, Maple Ridge-Mission, North Vancouver- Lonsdale, Saanich North and the Islands, Vancouver Burrard) enough to shift the power away from the Liberals and would have created a legislature with 38 Liberal and 41 NDP MLA’s.  Moving 80% of the vote would have given an even greater majority with 4 more seats(East Kootney, Kamploops, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Vancouver-Point Grey ).  It is also interesting to note that Vancouver-Point Grey was the riding of then Premier Gordon Campell which would have upset the leadership structure and most likely forced a Liberal Party leadership race.  This almost perfectly reversed the power dynamic giving 34 Liberal seats vs 45 NDP seats and an 85%  transfer would have by pushing it 2 more seats (Prince George-Mount Robson, Vancouver Fraserview).

In 2009 the total number of seats up for grabs raised to 85 and the Liberals got 49 of these which left 35 for the NDP and 1 for an independent in Delta South. The popular votes were 751,661 to 691,564 respectively and 134,616 for the Greens.  Transferring 50% of the Green votes to the NDP would again gain 8 seats(Boundary-Similkameen, Burnaby-North, Cariboo-Chilcotin, Kamloops-North Thompson, Maple Ridge-Mission, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Saanich North and the Islands, Vernon-Monashee) and with 80% another 3 seats(Burnaby-Lougheed, Comox Valley, Vancouver Fairview) which in both cases would give the NDP a majority government and just as strong a mandate as the Liberals received in this and the previous election.   85% transfer would have pushed it 2 more seats(Penticton, Vancouver-Fairview ) again.

If one assumes that the policies of the NDP and Green party are at least 85% in line with one another then why can’t we demand more collaboration from them.  It is also clear that in distinct ridings the Liberals benefit more from a Green party candidate running than in others and this fact makes the case for the NDP to put forward an offer to the Green party for a team effort being put toward 1 candidate instead of 2, it should not matter who’s party the candidate is with as the policies and principles of the candidate will speak for themselves.

The question that needs to be posed to NDP voters is “Would you vote for a Green party Candidate if it meant the NDP would gain enough seats to form a large majority government?” and the question to Green Voters is “Would you vote for an NDP Candidate if it meant Green party candidates would be elected in other ridings and become part of a coalition government?”

I would hope that at least 50% percent of individuals that have been informed of collaboration details by the candidates themselves would say Yes.

Cooperation and Collaboration can happen in endless ways, please leave a comment with details on how you would like to see these two parties work together before and after an election.

Comments   

 
+2 # Larry Wartel 2013-04-02 18:20
I am a firm supporter of cooperation. But like with everything in life it must be organized (Watch "Growing Activism," www.youtube.com/.../, taking time to meet thousands of people in person--not over the internet or facebook. At this point, it will be more time effective to defeat the Liberals by going door-to-door for the candidates who are historically best placed to win, until we have proportional representation. The BC NDP's constitution already calls for that.
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