What's the Bottom Line?

Over 8 Ridings the BC Liberals were able to secure their majority government by 4408 votes. In all of these ridings if around 50% or much less of Green voters would have opted for their NDP candidate then the NDP party would have won. Green Party votes accounted for 8% of total votes cast across BC but the majority government was decided by these 0.24% of the popular vote. These are the ridings in order from least votes needed to greatest.

Comox Valley was an outlier where 48% of the Green Vote would have altered the outcome but the Green Party had a much larger showing in this riding so it accounts for many more votes than the average trends. The threat of the Raven Coal Mine reopening in the region created a huge grassroots environmental movement to elect a member who would fight to end this proposed project. The outcome was the only riding on Vancouver Island to elect a BC Liberal.

The BC Liberals were actually able to secure a 15 seat majority and these are the further ridings where the number of Green Party votes would have made the difference to the NDP candidate however since the percentages required of Green votes are much higher in these ridings the argument for votesplitting is less pursuasive.